Sunday 1 November · 19:00 · 10th matchday
Marítimo – Santa Clara
Marítimo
11th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.23
Santa Clara
4th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.95
Our model makes Santa Clara favourites for Marítimo – Santa Clara, at 38% — but only 4.9% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Marítimo win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Santa Clara win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.03 goals for Marítimo and 1.12 for Santa Clara, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.03 for Marítimo, 1.12 for Santa Clara.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Marítimo wins; above it, Santa Clara wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Marítimo goals in rows, Santa Clara goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Marítimo v Santa Clara?
Santa Clara, at 38%. The full split is Marítimo 33%, draw 28%, Santa Clara 38%.
What is the most likely score in Marítimo v Santa Clara?
0–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marítimo v Santa Clara?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 63% of the time. Expected goals are 1.03 for Marítimo and 1.12 for Santa Clara.
Will both teams score in Marítimo v Santa Clara?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Marítimo keep a clean sheet or Santa Clara fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
