Monday 2 November · 21:15 · 10th matchday
Gil Vicente – Vitória Guimarães
Gil Vicente
8th · attack 0.99 · defence 0.99
Vitória Guimarães
15th · attack 1.07 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Gil Vicente favourites for Gil Vicente – Vitória Guimarães, at 39%. Kick-off 2 November 2026, 21:15.
Across the full score distribution, Gil Vicente win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Vitória Guimarães win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.06 for Vitória Guimarães, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.18 for Gil Vicente, 1.06 for Vitória Guimarães.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Gil Vicente wins; above it, Vitória Guimarães wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Gil Vicente goals in rows, Vitória Guimarães goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Gil Vicente v Vitória Guimarães?
Gil Vicente, at 39%. The full split is Gil Vicente 39%, draw 28%, Vitória Guimarães 33%.
What is the most likely score in Gil Vicente v Vitória Guimarães?
1–0, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gil Vicente v Vitória Guimarães?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Gil Vicente and 1.06 for Vitória Guimarães.
Will both teams score in Gil Vicente v Vitória Guimarães?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Gil Vicente keep a clean sheet or Vitória Guimarães fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
