Friday 30 October · 21:15 · 10th matchday
Casa Pia – Sporting CP
Casa Pia
17th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.14
Sporting CP
2nd · attack 2.14 · defence 0.69
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites for Casa Pia – Sporting CP, at 76%. Kick-off 30 October 2026, 21:15.
Across the full score distribution, Casa Pia win 9% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Sporting CP win 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 0.71 goals for Casa Pia and 2.43 for Sporting CP, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.71 for Casa Pia, 2.43 for Sporting CP.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Casa Pia wins; above it, Sporting CP wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Casa Pia goals in rows, Sporting CP goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Casa Pia v Sporting CP?
Sporting CP, at 76%. The full split is Casa Pia 9%, draw 15%, Sporting CP 76%.
What is the most likely score in Casa Pia v Sporting CP?
0–2, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Casa Pia v Sporting CP?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 0.71 for Casa Pia and 2.43 for Sporting CP.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia v Sporting CP?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Casa Pia keep a clean sheet or Sporting CP fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
