Monday 2 November · 21:15 · 10th matchday
Benfica – Alverca
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.95 · defence 0.66
Alverca
7th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.16
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Benfica – Alverca, at 81%. Kick-off 2 November 2026, 21:15.
Across the full score distribution, Benfica win 81% of the time, the draw comes up 12% and Alverca win 7%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.73 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Alverca, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.73 for Benfica, 0.67 for Alverca.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Benfica wins; above it, Alverca wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 1 |
Benfica goals in rows, Alverca goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Benfica v Alverca?
Benfica, at 81%. The full split is Benfica 81%, draw 12%, Alverca 7%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica v Alverca?
2–0, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benfica v Alverca?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.73 for Benfica and 0.67 for Alverca.
Will both teams score in Benfica v Alverca?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Benfica keep a clean sheet or Alverca fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
