Sunday 1 November · 16:30 · 10th matchday
Arouca – Nacional
Arouca
5th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.18
Nacional
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.21
Our model makes Arouca favourites for Arouca – Nacional, at 50%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Arouca win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Nacional win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.59 goals for Arouca and 1.06 for Nacional, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.59 for Arouca, 1.06 for Nacional.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arouca wins; above it, Nacional wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arouca goals in rows, Nacional goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arouca v Nacional?
Arouca, at 50%. The full split is Arouca 50%, draw 24%, Nacional 26%.
What is the most likely score in Arouca v Nacional?
1–0, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arouca v Nacional?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.59 for Arouca and 1.06 for Nacional.
Will both teams score in Arouca v Nacional?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Arouca keep a clean sheet or Nacional fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
