Sunday 1 November · 19:00 · 10th matchday
Academico Viseu – Rio Ave
Academico Viseu
6th · attack 1.17 · defence 0.98
Rio Ave
14th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Academico Viseu favourites for Academico Viseu – Rio Ave, at 56%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Academico Viseu win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Rio Ave win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.67 goals for Academico Viseu and 0.91 for Rio Ave, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.67 for Academico Viseu, 0.91 for Rio Ave.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Academico Viseu wins; above it, Rio Ave wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Academico Viseu goals in rows, Rio Ave goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Academico Viseu v Rio Ave?
Academico Viseu, at 56%. The full split is Academico Viseu 56%, draw 23%, Rio Ave 21%.
What is the most likely score in Academico Viseu v Rio Ave?
1–0, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Academico Viseu v Rio Ave?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.67 for Academico Viseu and 0.91 for Rio Ave.
Will both teams score in Academico Viseu v Rio Ave?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Academico Viseu keep a clean sheet or Rio Ave fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
