Saturday 31 October · 18:30 · 9th matchday
Tottenham Hotspur – Crystal Palace
Tottenham Hotspur
18th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.24
Crystal Palace
15th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Tottenham Hotspur favourites for Tottenham Hotspur – Crystal Palace, at 40%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Tottenham Hotspur win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Crystal Palace win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.19 for Crystal Palace, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.40 for Tottenham Hotspur, 1.19 for Crystal Palace.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Tottenham Hotspur wins; above it, Crystal Palace wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Tottenham Hotspur goals in rows, Crystal Palace goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace?
Tottenham Hotspur, at 40%. The full split is Tottenham Hotspur 40%, draw 29%, Crystal Palace 31%.
What is the most likely score in Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace?
1–1, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.19 for Crystal Palace.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Tottenham Hotspur keep a clean sheet or Crystal Palace fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
