Monday 2 November · 21:00 · 9th matchday
Newcastle United – Everton
Newcastle United
11th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.34
Everton
5th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Newcastle United favourites for Newcastle United – Everton, at 41%. Kick-off 2 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Newcastle United win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Everton win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.50 goals for Newcastle United and 1.28 for Everton, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.50 for Newcastle United, 1.28 for Everton.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Newcastle United wins; above it, Everton wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Newcastle United goals in rows, Everton goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Newcastle United v Everton?
Newcastle United, at 41%. The full split is Newcastle United 41%, draw 28%, Everton 31%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle United v Everton?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle United v Everton?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.50 for Newcastle United and 1.28 for Everton.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United v Everton?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Newcastle United keep a clean sheet or Everton fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
