Saturday 31 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.59 · defence 0.83
Brighton & Hove Albion
3rd · attack 1.38 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion, at 54%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester City win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Brighton & Hove Albion win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.90 goals for Manchester City and 1.14 for Brighton & Hove Albion, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.90 for Manchester City, 1.14 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester City wins; above it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Manchester City goals in rows, Brighton & Hove Albion goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Manchester City, at 54%. The full split is Manchester City 54%, draw 25%, Brighton & Hove Albion 21%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.90 for Manchester City and 1.14 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Will both teams score in Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Manchester City keep a clean sheet or Brighton & Hove Albion fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
