Sunday 1 November · 17:30 · 9th matchday
Liverpool – Arsenal
Liverpool
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.06
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.37 · defence 0.69
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Liverpool – Arsenal, at 44%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Liverpool win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Arsenal win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.07 goals for Liverpool and 1.45 for Arsenal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.07 for Liverpool, 1.45 for Arsenal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Liverpool wins; above it, Arsenal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Liverpool goals in rows, Arsenal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Liverpool v Arsenal?
Arsenal, at 44%. The full split is Liverpool 26%, draw 29%, Arsenal 44%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool v Arsenal?
1–1, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Arsenal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.07 for Liverpool and 1.45 for Arsenal.
Will both teams score in Liverpool v Arsenal?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet or Arsenal fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
