Saturday 31 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Hull City – Ipswich Town
Hull City
10th · attack 0.83 · defence 0.97
Ipswich Town
9th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.61
Our model makes Hull City favourites for Hull City – Ipswich Town, at 52%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Hull City win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Ipswich Town win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Hull City and 0.98 for Ipswich Town, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.64 for Hull City, 0.98 for Ipswich Town.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hull City wins; above it, Ipswich Town wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Hull City goals in rows, Ipswich Town goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hull City v Ipswich Town?
Hull City, at 52%. The full split is Hull City 52%, draw 27%, Ipswich Town 21%.
What is the most likely score in Hull City v Ipswich Town?
1–1, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hull City v Ipswich Town?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Hull City and 0.98 for Ipswich Town.
Will both teams score in Hull City v Ipswich Town?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Hull City keep a clean sheet or Ipswich Town fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
