Saturday 31 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Coventry City – Sunderland
Coventry City
19th · attack 0.47 · defence 1.45
Sunderland
16th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.17
Our model makes Sunderland favourites for Coventry City – Sunderland, at 51%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Coventry City win 18% of the time, the draw comes up 32% and Sunderland win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 16.6% of simulations.
We expect 0.68 goals for Coventry City and 1.32 for Sunderland, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 32% of the time and both teams scoring 37%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.68 for Coventry City, 1.32 for Sunderland.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Coventry City wins; above it, Sunderland wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Coventry City goals in rows, Sunderland goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Coventry City v Sunderland?
Sunderland, at 51%. The full split is Coventry City 18%, draw 32%, Sunderland 51%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City v Sunderland?
0–1, which comes up in 16.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry City v Sunderland?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 32% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 61% of the time. Expected goals are 0.68 for Coventry City and 1.32 for Sunderland.
Will both teams score in Coventry City v Sunderland?
Both teams score in 37% of simulations. Coventry City keep a clean sheet or Sunderland fail to score in the remaining 63%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
