Saturday 31 October · 13:30 · 9th matchday
Chelsea – Manchester United
Chelsea
5th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.25
Manchester United
12th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Chelsea favourites for Chelsea – Manchester United, at 43%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Chelsea win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Manchester United win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.84 goals for Chelsea and 1.60 for Manchester United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 68%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.84 for Chelsea, 1.60 for Manchester United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Chelsea wins; above it, Manchester United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Chelsea goals in rows, Manchester United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Chelsea v Manchester United?
Chelsea, at 43%. The full split is Chelsea 43%, draw 25%, Manchester United 33%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea v Manchester United?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Manchester United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 1.84 for Chelsea and 1.60 for Manchester United.
Will both teams score in Chelsea v Manchester United?
Both teams score in 68% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet or Manchester United fail to score in the remaining 32%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
