Saturday 31 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Brentford – Nottingham Forest
Brentford
4th · attack 1.25 · defence 1.06
Nottingham Forest
13th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Brentford favourites for Brentford – Nottingham Forest, at 48%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Brentford win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Nottingham Forest win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.57 goals for Brentford and 1.06 for Nottingham Forest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.57 for Brentford, 1.06 for Nottingham Forest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brentford wins; above it, Nottingham Forest wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Brentford goals in rows, Nottingham Forest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brentford v Nottingham Forest?
Brentford, at 48%. The full split is Brentford 48%, draw 28%, Nottingham Forest 24%.
What is the most likely score in Brentford v Nottingham Forest?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Nottingham Forest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.57 for Brentford and 1.06 for Nottingham Forest.
Will both teams score in Brentford v Nottingham Forest?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Brentford keep a clean sheet or Nottingham Forest fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
