Saturday 31 October · 21:00 · 9th matchday
Aston Villa – Fulham
Aston Villa
14th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.17
Fulham
20th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for Aston Villa – Fulham, at 48%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aston Villa win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Fulham win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.59 goals for Aston Villa and 1.08 for Fulham, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.59 for Aston Villa, 1.08 for Fulham.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aston Villa wins; above it, Fulham wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Aston Villa goals in rows, Fulham goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aston Villa v Fulham?
Aston Villa, at 48%. The full split is Aston Villa 48%, draw 28%, Fulham 24%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa v Fulham?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Fulham?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.59 for Aston Villa and 1.08 for Fulham.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa v Fulham?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet or Fulham fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
