Saturday 31 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
AFC Bournemouth – Leeds United
AFC Bournemouth
17th · attack 1.14 · defence 1.18
Leeds United
6th · attack 1.06 · defence 0.99
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for AFC Bournemouth – Leeds United, at 39%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, AFC Bournemouth win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Leeds United win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 1.26 for Leeds United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.39 for AFC Bournemouth, 1.26 for Leeds United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AFC Bournemouth wins; above it, Leeds United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AFC Bournemouth goals in rows, Leeds United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United?
AFC Bournemouth, at 39%. The full split is AFC Bournemouth 39%, draw 29%, Leeds United 32%.
What is the most likely score in AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United?
1–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.26 for Leeds United.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. AFC Bournemouth keep a clean sheet or Leeds United fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
