Saturday 31 October · 20:45 · 9th matchday
Troyes – Le Mans
Troyes
16th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.43
Le Mans
12th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.47
Our model makes Troyes favourites for Troyes – Le Mans, at 40% — but only 4.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Troyes win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Le Mans win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for Troyes and 1.43 for Le Mans, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.54 for Troyes, 1.43 for Le Mans.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Troyes wins; above it, Le Mans wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Troyes goals in rows, Le Mans goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Troyes v Le Mans?
Troyes, at 40%. The full split is Troyes 40%, draw 25%, Le Mans 35%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes v Le Mans?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Troyes v Le Mans?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for Troyes and 1.43 for Le Mans.
Will both teams score in Troyes v Le Mans?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Troyes keep a clean sheet or Le Mans fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
