Sunday 1 November · 17:15 · 9th matchday
Paris – Monaco
Paris
5th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.04
Monaco
1st · attack 1.42 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Monaco favourites for Paris – Monaco, at 38% — but only 2.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Paris win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Monaco win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.43 goals for Paris and 1.47 for Monaco, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.43 for Paris, 1.47 for Monaco.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris wins; above it, Monaco wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Paris goals in rows, Monaco goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris v Monaco?
Monaco, at 38%. The full split is Paris 36%, draw 26%, Monaco 38%.
What is the most likely score in Paris v Monaco?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris v Monaco?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.43 for Paris and 1.47 for Monaco.
Will both teams score in Paris v Monaco?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Paris keep a clean sheet or Monaco fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
