Sunday 1 November · 20:45 · 9th matchday
Olympique Marseille – Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
13th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.02
Toulouse
15th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Olympique Marseille – Toulouse, at 57%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Olympique Marseille win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Toulouse win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.92 goals for Olympique Marseille and 1.07 for Toulouse, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.92 for Olympique Marseille, 1.07 for Toulouse.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Olympique Marseille wins; above it, Toulouse wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Olympique Marseille goals in rows, Toulouse goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Olympique Marseille v Toulouse?
Olympique Marseille, at 57%. The full split is Olympique Marseille 57%, draw 23%, Toulouse 20%.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Marseille v Toulouse?
1–1, which comes up in 10.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Olympique Marseille v Toulouse?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.92 for Olympique Marseille and 1.07 for Toulouse.
Will both teams score in Olympique Marseille v Toulouse?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Olympique Marseille keep a clean sheet or Toulouse fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
