Saturday 31 October · 20:45 · 9th matchday
Olympique Lyonnais – Angers SCO
Olympique Lyonnais
3rd · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Angers SCO
11th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites for Olympique Lyonnais – Angers SCO, at 66%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Olympique Lyonnais win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Angers SCO win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 2.05 goals for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.80 for Angers SCO, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.05 for Olympique Lyonnais, 0.80 for Angers SCO.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Olympique Lyonnais wins; above it, Angers SCO wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Olympique Lyonnais goals in rows, Angers SCO goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Olympique Lyonnais v Angers SCO?
Olympique Lyonnais, at 66%. The full split is Olympique Lyonnais 66%, draw 21%, Angers SCO 13%.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Lyonnais v Angers SCO?
2–0, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Olympique Lyonnais v Angers SCO?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 2.05 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.80 for Angers SCO.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyonnais v Angers SCO?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Olympique Lyonnais keep a clean sheet or Angers SCO fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
