Saturday 31 October · 17:15 · 9th matchday
Nice – Rennes
Nice
15th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.05
Rennes
6th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Nice favourites for Nice – Rennes, at 37% — but only 1.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Nice win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Rennes win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.38 goals for Nice and 1.36 for Rennes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.38 for Nice, 1.36 for Rennes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nice wins; above it, Rennes wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nice goals in rows, Rennes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nice v Rennes?
Nice, at 37%. The full split is Nice 37%, draw 27%, Rennes 36%.
What is the most likely score in Nice v Rennes?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nice v Rennes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.38 for Nice and 1.36 for Rennes.
Will both teams score in Nice v Rennes?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Nice keep a clean sheet or Rennes fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
