Friday 30 October · 21:05 · 9th matchday
LOSC Lille – Lens
LOSC Lille
4th · attack 1.18 · defence 0.86
Lens
7th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.92
Our model makes LOSC Lille favourites for LOSC Lille – Lens, at 42%. Kick-off 30 October 2026, 21:05.
Across the full score distribution, LOSC Lille win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Lens win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for LOSC Lille and 1.08 for Lens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for LOSC Lille, 1.08 for Lens.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, LOSC Lille wins; above it, Lens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
LOSC Lille goals in rows, Lens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in LOSC Lille v Lens?
LOSC Lille, at 42%. The full split is LOSC Lille 42%, draw 29%, Lens 29%.
What is the most likely score in LOSC Lille v Lens?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in LOSC Lille v Lens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for LOSC Lille and 1.08 for Lens.
Will both teams score in LOSC Lille v Lens?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. LOSC Lille keep a clean sheet or Lens fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
