Saturday 31 October · 20:45 · 9th matchday
Lorient – Brest
Lorient
8th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.23
Brest
7th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Lorient favourites for Lorient – Brest, at 41%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Lorient win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Brest win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Lorient and 1.37 for Brest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for Lorient, 1.37 for Brest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lorient wins; above it, Brest wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Lorient goals in rows, Brest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lorient v Brest?
Lorient, at 41%. The full split is Lorient 41%, draw 26%, Brest 34%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient v Brest?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lorient v Brest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Lorient and 1.37 for Brest.
Will both teams score in Lorient v Brest?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Lorient keep a clean sheet or Brest fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
