Sunday 8 November · 18:30 · 12th matchday
Villarreal – Getafe
Villarreal
12th · attack 1.44 · defence 1.01
Getafe
15th · attack 0.69 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Villarreal favourites for Villarreal – Getafe, at 59%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Villarreal win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Getafe win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 15.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.60 goals for Villarreal and 0.69 for Getafe, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 40%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.60 for Villarreal, 0.69 for Getafe.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Villarreal wins; above it, Getafe wins.
| Villarreal \ Getafe | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Villarreal goals in rows, Getafe goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Villarreal v Getafe?
Villarreal, at 59%. The full split is Villarreal 59%, draw 26%, Getafe 16%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal v Getafe?
1–0, which comes up in 15.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Getafe?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.60 for Villarreal and 0.69 for Getafe.
Will both teams score in Villarreal v Getafe?
Both teams score in 40% of simulations. Villarreal keep a clean sheet or Getafe fail to score in the remaining 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
