Modelling · Spain
La Liga
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Barcelona | 7 | 21 | 31 | 7 | 4.43 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 0.79 |
| 2 |  Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 1.46 | 0.82 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.93 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 15 | 18 | 8 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 1.72 | 0.75 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 1.57 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| 7 |  Deportivo A Coruñapromoted | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 1.29 | 1.86 | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 1.86 | 1.71 | 1.51 | 1.04 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.04 | 0.90 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 1.57 | 2.29 | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 0.86 | 1.86 | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| 14 |  Celta de Vigo | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.12 | 1.01 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 0.97 | 1.09 |
| 16 |  Racing Santanderpromoted | 7 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 1.57 | 3.00 | 1.21 | 1.96 |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.09 | 1.23 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 1.57 | 2.43 | 1.08 | 1.24 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0.57 | 1.86 | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| 20 |  Málagapromoted | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0.43 | 1.71 | 0.54 | 1.19 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.