Modelling · Spain
La Liga
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Barcelona | 7 | 21 | +24 | 86% | 90.882–99 | 0% |
| 2 |  Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 16 | +9 | 3% | 73.965–83 | 0% |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 16 | +2 | 0% | 65.456–75 | 0% |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 15 | +10 | 11% | 79.671–88 | 0% |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 13 | +1 | 0% | 52.543–62 | 2% |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 11 | +5 | 0% | 49.140–58 | 5% |
| 7 |  Deportivo A Coruñapromoted | 7 | 10 | +2 | 0% | 48.938–61 | 9% |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 10 | -4 | 0% | 53.844–63 | 1% |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 8 | +1 | 0% | 59.250–69 | 0% |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 8 | +1 | 0% | 54.745–65 | 1% |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 8 | -3 | 0% | 43.835–53 | 17% |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 8 | -5 | 0% | 47.538–57 | 8% |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 8 | -7 | 0% | 45.036–54 | 15% |
| 14 |  Celta de Vigo | 7 | 7 | +2 | 0% | 49.239–59 | 5% |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 44.335–54 | 16% |
| 16 |  Racing Santanderpromoted | 7 | 7 | -10 | 0% | 34.623–46 | 64% |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 5 | -4 | 0% | 44.134–55 | 20% |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 5 | -6 | 0% | 43.234–53 | 21% |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 4 | -9 | 0% | 41.432–51 | 29% |
| 20 |  Málagapromoted | 7 | 3 | -9 | 0% | 28.319–38 | 88% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,684 matches, with a 365-day half-life — an effective sample of 1,076. The points interval covers 80% of simulated seasons.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
1234567891011121314151617181920FC Barcelona8612Real Madrid1159245Atlético de Madrid2448165Real Betis163519106Villarreal51721161286Athletic Club8121312119765Real Sociedad510121211108765Sevilla81011111098765Celta de Vigo578999887765Deportivo Alavés67999998765Deportivo A Coruña57777777666665Rayo Vallecano678899988765Osasuna556789999985Espanyol5678991010986Levante566788899108Getafe567889101011106Elche55678991010107Valencia56781011121411Racing Santander569132525Málaga82357
FC Barcelona8612Real Madrid1159245Atlético de Madrid2448165Real Betis163519106Villarreal51721161286Athletic Club8121312119765Real Sociedad510121211108765Sevilla81011111098765Celta de Vigo578999887765Deportivo Alavés67999998765Deportivo A Coruña57777777666665Rayo Vallecano678899988765Osasuna556789999985Espanyol5678991010986Levante566788899108Getafe567889101011106Elche55678991010107Valencia56781011121411Racing Santander569132525Málaga82357The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
FC Barcelona1.2eReal Madrid2.2eAtlético de Madrid3.1e