Saturday 7 November · 21:00 · 12th matchday
Valencia – Real Madrid
Valencia
19th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.06
Real Madrid
4th · attack 1.70 · defence 0.74
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Valencia – Real Madrid, at 58%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Valencia win 18% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Real Madrid win 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.92 goals for Valencia and 1.81 for Real Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.92 for Valencia, 1.81 for Real Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Valencia wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| Valencia \ Real Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Valencia goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Valencia v Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, at 58%. The full split is Valencia 18%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 58%.
What is the most likely score in Valencia v Real Madrid?
0–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Valencia v Real Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 0.92 for Valencia and 1.81 for Real Madrid.
Will both teams score in Valencia v Real Madrid?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Valencia keep a clean sheet or Real Madrid fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
