Sunday 29 November · 14:00 · 14th matchday
Valencia – Osasuna
Valencia
19th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.07
Osasuna
16th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Valencia favourites for Valencia – Osasuna, at 44%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Valencia win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Osasuna win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.38 goals for Valencia and 1.02 for Osasuna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.38 for Valencia, 1.02 for Osasuna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Valencia wins; above it, Osasuna wins.
| Valencia \ Osasuna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Valencia goals in rows, Osasuna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Valencia v Osasuna?
Valencia, at 44%. The full split is Valencia 44%, draw 28%, Osasuna 27%.
What is the most likely score in Valencia v Osasuna?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Valencia v Osasuna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.38 for Valencia and 1.02 for Osasuna.
Will both teams score in Valencia v Osasuna?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Valencia keep a clean sheet or Osasuna fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
