Saturday 21 November · 18:30 · 13th matchday
Sevilla – Real Betis
Sevilla
6th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.14
Real Betis
4th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Real Betis favourites for Sevilla – Real Betis, at 38% — but only 1.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Sevilla win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Real Betis win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Sevilla and 1.43 for Real Betis, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.40 for Sevilla, 1.43 for Real Betis.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sevilla wins; above it, Real Betis wins.
| Sevilla \ Real Betis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sevilla goals in rows, Real Betis goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sevilla v Real Betis?
Real Betis, at 38%. The full split is Sevilla 36%, draw 26%, Real Betis 38%.
What is the most likely score in Sevilla v Real Betis?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sevilla v Real Betis?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Sevilla and 1.43 for Real Betis.
Will both teams score in Sevilla v Real Betis?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Sevilla keep a clean sheet or Real Betis fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
