Friday 6 November · 21:00 · 12th matchday
Sevilla – Deportivo Alavés
Sevilla
5th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.10
Deportivo Alavés
7th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Sevilla favourites for Sevilla – Deportivo Alavés, at 46%. Kick-off 6 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sevilla win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Deportivo Alavés win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Sevilla and 1.05 for Deportivo Alavés, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.45 for Sevilla, 1.05 for Deportivo Alavés.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sevilla wins; above it, Deportivo Alavés wins.
| Sevilla \ Deportivo Alavés | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sevilla goals in rows, Deportivo Alavés goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés?
Sevilla, at 46%. The full split is Sevilla 46%, draw 27%, Deportivo Alavés 27%.
What is the most likely score in Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Sevilla and 1.05 for Deportivo Alavés.
Will both teams score in Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sevilla keep a clean sheet or Deportivo Alavés fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 17 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
