Sunday 29 November · 21:00 · 14th matchday
Real Sociedad – Sevilla
Real Sociedad
5th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.11
Sevilla
6th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Real Sociedad – Sevilla, at 52%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Sevilla win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.81 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.16 for Sevilla, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.81 for Real Sociedad, 1.16 for Sevilla.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad wins; above it, Sevilla wins.
| Real Sociedad \ Sevilla | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad goals in rows, Sevilla goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad v Sevilla?
Real Sociedad, at 52%. The full split is Real Sociedad 52%, draw 24%, Sevilla 24%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad v Sevilla?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad v Sevilla?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.81 for Real Sociedad and 1.16 for Sevilla.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad v Sevilla?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet or Sevilla fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
