Wednesday 2 December · 19:00 · 23rd matchday
Real Sociedad – Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
5th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.11
Real Madrid
2nd · attack 1.74 · defence 0.70
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Real Sociedad – Real Madrid, at 56%. Kick-off 2 December 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Real Madrid win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.93 for Real Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.13 for Real Sociedad, 1.93 for Real Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| Real Sociedad \ Real Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad v Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, at 56%. The full split is Real Sociedad 21%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 56%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad v Real Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad v Real Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Real Sociedad and 1.93 for Real Madrid.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad v Real Madrid?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet or Real Madrid fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
