Sunday 8 November · 16:15 · 12th matchday
Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
5th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.12
Rayo Vallecano
13th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano, at 50%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Rayo Vallecano win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.01 for Rayo Vallecano, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.58 for Real Sociedad, 1.01 for Rayo Vallecano.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad wins; above it, Rayo Vallecano wins.
| Real Sociedad \ Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad goals in rows, Rayo Vallecano goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano?
Real Sociedad, at 50%. The full split is Real Sociedad 50%, draw 26%, Rayo Vallecano 24%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Real Sociedad and 1.01 for Rayo Vallecano.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet or Rayo Vallecano fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
