Saturday 28 November · 21:00 · 14th matchday
Real Madrid – Deportivo Alavés
Real Madrid
2nd · attack 1.74 · defence 0.70
Deportivo Alavés
12th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Real Madrid – Deportivo Alavés, at 77%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Madrid win 77% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Deportivo Alavés win 7%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.47 goals for Real Madrid and 0.65 for Deportivo Alavés, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.47 for Real Madrid, 0.65 for Deportivo Alavés.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Madrid wins; above it, Deportivo Alavés wins.
| Real Madrid \ Deportivo Alavés | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Real Madrid goals in rows, Deportivo Alavés goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Madrid v Deportivo Alavés?
Real Madrid, at 77%. The full split is Real Madrid 77%, draw 16%, Deportivo Alavés 7%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid v Deportivo Alavés?
2–0, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v Deportivo Alavés?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.47 for Real Madrid and 0.65 for Deportivo Alavés.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid v Deportivo Alavés?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet or Deportivo Alavés fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
