Saturday 21 November · 21:00 · 13th matchday
Real Madrid – Celta de Vigo
Real Madrid
3rd · attack 1.71 · defence 0.71
Celta de Vigo
11th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.00
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Real Madrid – Celta de Vigo, at 72%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Madrid win 72% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Celta de Vigo win 10%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.30 goals for Real Madrid and 0.75 for Celta de Vigo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.30 for Real Madrid, 0.75 for Celta de Vigo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Madrid wins; above it, Celta de Vigo wins.
| Real Madrid \ Celta de Vigo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Real Madrid goals in rows, Celta de Vigo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Madrid v Celta de Vigo?
Real Madrid, at 72%. The full split is Real Madrid 72%, draw 18%, Celta de Vigo 10%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid v Celta de Vigo?
2–0, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v Celta de Vigo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 2.30 for Real Madrid and 0.75 for Celta de Vigo.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid v Celta de Vigo?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet or Celta de Vigo fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
