Saturday 28 November · 14:00 · 14th matchday
Real Betis – Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
4th · attack 1.27 · defence 0.96
Rayo Vallecano
13th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Real Betis favourites for Real Betis – Rayo Vallecano, at 56%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Betis win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Rayo Vallecano win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.68 goals for Real Betis and 0.87 for Rayo Vallecano, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.68 for Real Betis, 0.87 for Rayo Vallecano.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Betis wins; above it, Rayo Vallecano wins.
| Real Betis \ Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Real Betis goals in rows, Rayo Vallecano goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano?
Real Betis, at 56%. The full split is Real Betis 56%, draw 25%, Rayo Vallecano 19%.
What is the most likely score in Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano?
1–0, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.68 for Real Betis and 0.87 for Rayo Vallecano.
Will both teams score in Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Real Betis keep a clean sheet or Rayo Vallecano fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
