Saturday 21 November · 16:15 · 13th matchday
Rayo Vallecano – Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
9th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.00
Valencia
19th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano favourites for Rayo Vallecano – Valencia, at 45%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Rayo Vallecano win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Valencia win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.91 for Valencia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.29 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.91 for Valencia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rayo Vallecano wins; above it, Valencia wins.
| Rayo Vallecano \ Valencia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rayo Vallecano goals in rows, Valencia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rayo Vallecano v Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano, at 45%. The full split is Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 29%, Valencia 26%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano v Valencia?
1–0, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano v Valencia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.91 for Valencia.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano v Valencia?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet or Valencia fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
