Sunday 22 November · 16:15 · 13th matchday
Racing Santander – Real Sociedad
Racing Santander
16th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.83
Real Sociedad
5th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Racing Santander – Real Sociedad, at 50%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Racing Santander win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Real Sociedad win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 8.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.67 goals for Racing Santander and 2.21 for Real Sociedad, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 72%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.67 for Racing Santander, 2.21 for Real Sociedad.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Racing Santander wins; above it, Real Sociedad wins.
| Racing Santander \ Real Sociedad | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Racing Santander goals in rows, Real Sociedad goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Racing Santander v Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad, at 50%. The full split is Racing Santander 29%, draw 21%, Real Sociedad 50%.
What is the most likely score in Racing Santander v Real Sociedad?
1–2, which comes up in 8.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Racing Santander v Real Sociedad?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 1.67 for Racing Santander and 2.21 for Real Sociedad.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander v Real Sociedad?
Both teams score in 72% of simulations. Racing Santander keep a clean sheet or Real Sociedad fail to score in the remaining 28%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
