Saturday 7 November · 18:30 · 12th matchday
Osasuna – Athletic Club
Osasuna
16th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.13
Athletic Club
9th · attack 1.01 · defence 0.87
Our model makes Osasuna favourites for Osasuna – Athletic Club, at 36% — but only 0.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Osasuna win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Athletic Club win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.15 goals for Osasuna and 1.13 for Athletic Club, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.15 for Osasuna, 1.13 for Athletic Club.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Osasuna wins; above it, Athletic Club wins.
| Osasuna \ Athletic Club | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Osasuna goals in rows, Athletic Club goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Osasuna v Athletic Club?
Osasuna, at 36%. The full split is Osasuna 36%, draw 29%, Athletic Club 35%.
What is the most likely score in Osasuna v Athletic Club?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Osasuna v Athletic Club?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.15 for Osasuna and 1.13 for Athletic Club.
Will both teams score in Osasuna v Athletic Club?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Osasuna keep a clean sheet or Athletic Club fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
