Saturday 7 November · 14:00 · 12th matchday
Málaga – Racing Santander
Málaga
20th · attack 0.56 · defence 1.19
Racing Santander
15th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.99
Our model makes Málaga favourites for Málaga – Racing Santander, at 38% — but only 0.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Málaga win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Racing Santander win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.49 goals for Málaga and 1.47 for Racing Santander, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.49 for Málaga, 1.47 for Racing Santander.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Málaga wins; above it, Racing Santander wins.
| Málaga \ Racing Santander | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Málaga goals in rows, Racing Santander goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Málaga v Racing Santander?
Málaga, at 38%. The full split is Málaga 38%, draw 25%, Racing Santander 37%.
What is the most likely score in Málaga v Racing Santander?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Málaga v Racing Santander?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.49 for Málaga and 1.47 for Racing Santander.
Will both teams score in Málaga v Racing Santander?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Málaga keep a clean sheet or Racing Santander fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
