Friday 27 November · 21:00 · 14th matchday
Levante – Racing Santander
Levante
17th · attack 1.10 · defence 1.22
Racing Santander
10th · attack 1.14 · defence 1.79
Our model makes Levante favourites for Levante – Racing Santander, at 64%. Kick-off 27 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Levante win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Racing Santander win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.64 goals for Levante and 1.40 for Racing Santander, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 77% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.64 for Levante, 1.40 for Racing Santander.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Levante wins; above it, Racing Santander wins.
| Levante \ Racing Santander | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Levante goals in rows, Racing Santander goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Levante v Racing Santander?
Levante, at 64%. The full split is Levante 64%, draw 18%, Racing Santander 18%.
What is the most likely score in Levante v Racing Santander?
2–1, which comes up in 8.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante v Racing Santander?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 77% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 91% of the time. Expected goals are 2.64 for Levante and 1.40 for Racing Santander.
Will both teams score in Levante v Racing Santander?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. Levante keep a clean sheet or Racing Santander fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
