Monday 23 November · 21:00 · 13th matchday
Levante – Elche
Levante
18th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.25
Elche
17th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.15
Our model makes Levante favourites for Levante – Elche, at 47%. Kick-off 23 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Levante win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Elche win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Levante and 1.29 for Elche, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.72 for Levante, 1.29 for Elche.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Levante wins; above it, Elche wins.
| Levante \ Elche | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Levante goals in rows, Elche goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Levante v Elche?
Levante, at 47%. The full split is Levante 47%, draw 24%, Elche 29%.
What is the most likely score in Levante v Elche?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante v Elche?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Levante and 1.29 for Elche.
Will both teams score in Levante v Elche?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Levante keep a clean sheet or Elche fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
