Sunday 22 November · 14:00 · 13th matchday
FC Barcelona – Villarreal
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.19 · defence 0.81
Villarreal
10th · attack 1.42 · defence 1.01
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for FC Barcelona – Villarreal, at 74%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, FC Barcelona win 74% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Villarreal win 12%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.96 goals for FC Barcelona and 1.15 for Villarreal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.96 for FC Barcelona, 1.15 for Villarreal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Barcelona wins; above it, Villarreal wins.
| FC Barcelona \ Villarreal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
FC Barcelona goals in rows, Villarreal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Barcelona v Villarreal?
FC Barcelona, at 74%. The full split is FC Barcelona 74%, draw 15%, Villarreal 12%.
What is the most likely score in FC Barcelona v Villarreal?
2–1, which comes up in 8.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Barcelona v Villarreal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 92% of the time. Expected goals are 2.96 for FC Barcelona and 1.15 for Villarreal.
Will both teams score in FC Barcelona v Villarreal?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet or Villarreal fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
