Saturday 7 November · 16:15 · 12th matchday
Espanyol – Deportivo A Coruña
Espanyol
13th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.09
Deportivo A Coruña
8th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.17
Our model makes Espanyol favourites for Espanyol – Deportivo A Coruña, at 45%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Espanyol win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Deportivo A Coruña win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.49 goals for Espanyol and 1.13 for Deportivo A Coruña, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.49 for Espanyol, 1.13 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Espanyol wins; above it, Deportivo A Coruña wins.
| Espanyol \ Deportivo A Coruña | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Espanyol goals in rows, Deportivo A Coruña goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña?
Espanyol, at 45%. The full split is Espanyol 45%, draw 27%, Deportivo A Coruña 28%.
What is the most likely score in Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.49 for Espanyol and 1.13 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Will both teams score in Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Espanyol keep a clean sheet or Deportivo A Coruña fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
