Sunday 8 November · 14:00 · 12th matchday
Elche – Real Betis
Elche
18th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.17
Real Betis
4th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Real Betis favourites for Elche – Real Betis, at 40%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Elche win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Real Betis win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.36 goals for Elche and 1.50 for Real Betis, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.36 for Elche, 1.50 for Real Betis.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elche wins; above it, Real Betis wins.
| Elche \ Real Betis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Elche goals in rows, Real Betis goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elche v Real Betis?
Real Betis, at 40%. The full split is Elche 34%, draw 26%, Real Betis 40%.
What is the most likely score in Elche v Real Betis?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elche v Real Betis?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.36 for Elche and 1.50 for Real Betis.
Will both teams score in Elche v Real Betis?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Elche keep a clean sheet or Real Betis fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
