Saturday 28 November · 18:30 · 14th matchday
Elche – Atlético de Madrid
Elche
18th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.16
Atlético de Madrid
3rd · attack 1.43 · defence 0.78
Our model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites for Elche – Atlético de Madrid, at 51%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Elche win 24% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Atlético de Madrid win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.07 goals for Elche and 1.66 for Atlético de Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.07 for Elche, 1.66 for Atlético de Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elche wins; above it, Atlético de Madrid wins.
| Elche \ Atlético de Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Elche goals in rows, Atlético de Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elche v Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid, at 51%. The full split is Elche 24%, draw 25%, Atlético de Madrid 51%.
What is the most likely score in Elche v Atlético de Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elche v Atlético de Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.07 for Elche and 1.66 for Atlético de Madrid.
Will both teams score in Elche v Atlético de Madrid?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Elche keep a clean sheet or Atlético de Madrid fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
