Saturday 21 November · 14:00 · 13th matchday
Deportivo Alavés – Deportivo A Coruña
Deportivo Alavés
12th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.08
Deportivo A Coruña
8th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Deportivo Alavés favourites for Deportivo Alavés – Deportivo A Coruña, at 40%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Deportivo Alavés win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Deportivo A Coruña win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for Deportivo Alavés and 1.12 for Deportivo A Coruña, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.30 for Deportivo Alavés, 1.12 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Deportivo Alavés wins; above it, Deportivo A Coruña wins.
| Deportivo Alavés \ Deportivo A Coruña | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Deportivo Alavés goals in rows, Deportivo A Coruña goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Deportivo Alavés v Deportivo A Coruña?
Deportivo Alavés, at 40%. The full split is Deportivo Alavés 40%, draw 28%, Deportivo A Coruña 32%.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Alavés v Deportivo A Coruña?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo Alavés v Deportivo A Coruña?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.12 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Alavés v Deportivo A Coruña?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Deportivo Alavés keep a clean sheet or Deportivo A Coruña fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
