Sunday 29 November · 16:15 · 14th matchday
Deportivo A Coruña – FC Barcelona
Deportivo A Coruña
9th · attack 0.98 · defence 0.96
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.21 · defence 0.80
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for Deportivo A Coruña – FC Barcelona, at 61%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Deportivo A Coruña win 17% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and FC Barcelona win 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.05 goals for Deportivo A Coruña and 2.11 for FC Barcelona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.05 for Deportivo A Coruña, 2.11 for FC Barcelona.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Deportivo A Coruña wins; above it, FC Barcelona wins.
| Deportivo A Coruña \ FC Barcelona | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Deportivo A Coruña goals in rows, FC Barcelona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Deportivo A Coruña v FC Barcelona?
FC Barcelona, at 61%. The full split is Deportivo A Coruña 17%, draw 21%, FC Barcelona 61%.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo A Coruña v FC Barcelona?
1–2, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo A Coruña v FC Barcelona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.05 for Deportivo A Coruña and 2.11 for FC Barcelona.
Will both teams score in Deportivo A Coruña v FC Barcelona?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Deportivo A Coruña keep a clean sheet or FC Barcelona fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
