Sunday 29 November · 18:30 · 14th matchday
Celta de Vigo – Villarreal
Celta de Vigo
11th · attack 1.04 · defence 0.98
Villarreal
8th · attack 1.44 · defence 1.00
Our model makes Villarreal favourites for Celta de Vigo – Villarreal, at 37% — but only 0.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Celta de Vigo win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Villarreal win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Celta de Vigo and 1.41 for Villarreal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.40 for Celta de Vigo, 1.41 for Villarreal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celta de Vigo wins; above it, Villarreal wins.
| Celta de Vigo \ Villarreal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Celta de Vigo goals in rows, Villarreal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celta de Vigo v Villarreal?
Villarreal, at 37%. The full split is Celta de Vigo 36%, draw 26%, Villarreal 37%.
What is the most likely score in Celta de Vigo v Villarreal?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta de Vigo v Villarreal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Celta de Vigo and 1.41 for Villarreal.
Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo v Villarreal?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Celta de Vigo keep a clean sheet or Villarreal fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
