Sunday 8 November · 18:30 · 12th matchday
Celta de Vigo – Levante
Celta de Vigo
8th · attack 1.10 · defence 0.99
Levante
17th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Celta de Vigo favourites for Celta de Vigo – Levante, at 55%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Celta de Vigo win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Levante win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.85 goals for Celta de Vigo and 1.10 for Levante, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.85 for Celta de Vigo, 1.10 for Levante.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celta de Vigo wins; above it, Levante wins.
| Celta de Vigo \ Levante | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Celta de Vigo goals in rows, Levante goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celta de Vigo v Levante?
Celta de Vigo, at 55%. The full split is Celta de Vigo 55%, draw 23%, Levante 22%.
What is the most likely score in Celta de Vigo v Levante?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta de Vigo v Levante?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.85 for Celta de Vigo and 1.10 for Levante.
Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo v Levante?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Celta de Vigo keep a clean sheet or Levante fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
